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Books

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The Signal and the Noise: Why so Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don'ts - Silver, Nate
ISBN: 159420411X
Publication Date: 2012
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

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Demand-Driven Forecasting: STructured Approach to Forecasting - Chase, Charles W.
ISBN: 9781118735640
Publication Date: 2013
An updated new edition of the comprehensive guide to better business forecasting Many companies still look at quantitative forecasting methods with suspicion, but a new awareness is emerging across many industries as more businesses and professionals recognize the value of integrating demand data (point-of-sale and syndicated scanner data) into the forecasting process. Demand-Driven Forecasting equips you with solutions that can sense, shape, and predict future demand using highly sophisticated methods and tools. From a review of the most basic forecasting methods to the most advanced and innovative techniques in use today, this guide explains demand-driven forecasting, offering a fundamental understanding of the quantitative methods used to sense, shape, and predict future demand within a structured process. Offering a complete overview of the latest business forecasting concepts and applications, this revised Second Edition of Demand-Driven Forecasting is the perfect guide for professionals who need to improve the accuracy of their sales forecasts. Completely updated to include the very latest concepts and methods in forecasting Includes real case studies and examples, actual data, and graphical displays and tables to illustrate how effective implementation works Ideal for CEOs, CFOs, CMOs, vice presidents of supply chain, vice presidents of demand forecasting and planning, directors of demand forecasting and planning, supply chain managers, demand planning managers, marketing analysts, forecasting analysts, financial managers, and any other professional who produces or contributes to forecasts Accurate forecasting is vital to success in today's challenging business climate. Demand-Driven Forecasting offers proven and effective insight on making sure your forecasts are right on the money.
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Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder - Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
Call Number: Q 375 .T348 2012
ISBN: 1400067820
Publication Date: 2012
Antifragile is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, and The Bed of Procrustes. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world.   Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, and rumors or riots intensify when someone tries to repress them, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls "antifragile" is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish.    In The Black Swan, Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. In Antifragile, Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary, and proposes that things be built in an antifragile manner. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better.   Furthermore, the antifragile is immune to prediction errors and protected from adverse events. Why is the city-state better than the nation-state, why is debt bad for you, and why is what we call "efficient" not efficient at all? Why do government responses and social policies protect the strong and hurt the weak? Why should you write your resignation letter before even starting on the job? How did the sinking of the Titanic save lives? The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine. And throughout, in addition to the street wisdom of Fat Tony of Brooklyn, the voices and recipes of ancient wisdom, from Roman, Greek, Semitic, and medieval sources, are loud and clear.   Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world.   Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb's message is revolutionary: The antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it. Praise for Antifragile   "Ambitious and thought-provoking . . . highly entertaining."--The Economist   "A bold book explaining how and why we should embrace uncertainty, randomness, and error . . . It may just change our lives."--Newsweek   "Revelatory . . . [Taleb] pulls the reader along with the logic of a Socrates."--Chicago Tribune   "Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides . . . I will have to read it again. And again."--Matt Ridley, The Wall Street Journal   "Trenchant and persuasive . . . Taleb's insatiable polymathic curiosity knows no bounds. . . . You finish the book feeling braver and uplifted."--New Statesman   "Antifragility isn't just sound economic and political doctrine. It's also the key to a good life."--Fortune   "At once thought-provoking and brilliant."--Los Angeles Times

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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable - Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
Call Number: Q 375 .T35 2010
ISBN: 081297381X
Publication Date: 2010
The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.   Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible."   For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.   Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan.   Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb   "The most prophetic voice of all."--GQ   Praise for The Black Swan   "[A book] that altered modern thinking."--The Times (London)   "A masterpiece."--Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail   "Idiosyncratically brilliant."--Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times   "The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."--Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate   "[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy."--The Wall Street Journal   "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into."--Financial Times   "Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition."--The New York Times Book Review From the Hardcover edition.

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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable - Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
Call Number: Q 375 .T35 2007
ISBN: 1400063515
Publication Date: 2007
The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.   Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible."   For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.   Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan.   Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb   "The most prophetic voice of all."--GQ   Praise for The Black Swan   "[A book] that altered modern thinking."--The Times (London)   "A masterpiece."--Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail   "Idiosyncratically brilliant."--Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times   "The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."--Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate   "[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy."--The Wall Street Journal   "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into."--Financial Times   "Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition."--The New York Times Book Review

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Demand-Driven Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Forecasting - Charles W. Chase
ISBN: 9780470530993
Publication Date: 2009
Praise for Demand-Driven Forecasting A Structured Approach to Forecasting "There are authors of advanced forecasting books who take an academic approach to explaining forecast modeling that focuses on the construction of arcane algorithms and mathematical proof that are not very useful for forecasting practitioners. Then, there are other authors who take a general approach to explaining demand planning, but gloss over technical content required of modern forecasters. Neither of these approaches is well-suited for helping business forecasters critically identify the best demand data sources, effectively apply appropriate statistical forecasting methods, and properly design efficient demand planning processes. In Demand-Driven Forecasting, Chase fills this void in the literature and provides the reader with concise explanations for advanced statistical methods and credible business advice for improving ways to predict demand for products and services. Whether you are an experienced professional forecasting manager, or a novice forecast analyst, you will find this book a valuable resource for your professional development." -Daniel Kiely, Senior Manager, Epidemiology, Forecasting & Analytics, Celgene Corporation "Charlie Chase has given forecasters a clear, responsible approach for ending the timeless tug of war between the need for 'forecast rigor' and the call for greater inclusion of 'client judgment.' By advancing the use of 'domain knowledge' and hypothesis testing to enrich base-case forecasts, he has empowered professional forecasters to step up and impact their companies' business results favorably and profoundly, all the while enhancing the organizational stature of forecasters broadly." -Bob Woodard, Vice President, Global Consumer and Customer Insights, Campbell Soup Company

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Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making - Abramowicz, Michael
Call Number: HD 30.27 .A27 2007
ISBN: 0300115997
Publication Date: 2008
Predicting the future is serious business for virtually all public and private institutions, for they must often make important decisions based on such predictions. This visionary book explores how institutions from legislatures to corporations might improve their predictions and arrive at better decisions by means of prediction markets, a promising new tool with virtually unlimited potential applications.   Michael Abramowicz explains how prediction markets work; why they accurately forecast elections, sports contests, and other events; and how they may even advance the ideals of our system of republican government. He also explores the ways in which prediction markets address common problems related to institutional decision making. Throughout the book the author extends current thinking about prediction markets and offers imaginative proposals for their use in an array of settings and situations.  

Forecasting and Time Series Analysis - Montgomery, Douglas C.; Johnson, Lynwood A.; Gardiner, John S. Gardiner;
Call Number: QA 280 .M66 1990
ISBN: 0070428581
Publication Date: 1990
This practical, user-oriented second edition describes how to use statistical modeling and analysis methods for forecasting and prediction problems. Statistical and mathematical terms are introduced only as they are needed, and every effort has been made to keep the mathematical and statistical prerequisites to a minimum. Every technique that is introduced is illustrated by fully worked numerical examples. Not only is the coverage of traditional forecasting methods greatly expanded in this new edition, but a number of new techniques and methods are covered as well.

The Modern Forecaster: The Forecasting Process through Data Analysis - Levenbach, Hans; Cleary, James P.;
Call Number: HB 3730 .L413 1984
ISBN: 053403361X
Publication Date: 1984

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Elements of Forecasting - Diebold, Francis X.
Call Number: H 61.4 .D54 1998
ISBN: 0538862440
Publication Date: 1997
Elements of Forecasting is a concise, modern survey of business and economics forecasting. Written by one of the world's leading experts on forecasting, the text focuses on the core techniques with the widest applicability. It is applications-oriented and illustrates all methods with detailed, real-world application.

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Time-Series Forecasting - Chatfield, Chris
Call Number: QA 280 .C42 2001
ISBN: 1584880635
Publication Date: 2000
From the author of the bestselling "Analysis of Time Series," Time-Series Forecasting offers a comprehensive, up-to-date review of forecasting methods. It provides a summary of time-series modelling procedures, followed by a brief catalogue of many different time-series forecasting methods, ranging from ad-hoc methods through ARIMA and state-space modelling to multivariate methods and including recent arrivals, such as GARCH models, neural networks, and cointegrated models. The author compares the more important methods in terms of their theoretical inter-relationships and their practical merits. He also considers two other general forecasting topics that have been somewhat neglected in the literature: the computation of prediction intervals and the effect of model uncertainty on forecast accuracy. Although the search for a "best" method continues, it is now well established that no single method will outperform all other methods in all situations-the context is crucial. Time-Series Forecasting provides an outstanding reference source for the more generally applicable methods particularly useful to researchers and practitioners in forecasting in the areas of economics, government, industry, and commerce.

 
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